基于能值分析的崇明岛“社会-经济-自然”复合生态系统可持续性评估

SUSTAINABILITY EVALUATION OF CHONGMING ISLANDS SOCIAL-ECONOMIC-NATURAL COMPLEX ECOSYSTEM BASED ON EMERGY ANALYSIS

运用能值分析的理论和方法，以中国第三大岛崇明岛为研究对象，定量分析和评价了1980～2003年岛内“社会-经济-自然”复合生态系统的能值自给率、人均能值用量、能值密度、环境负荷率、人口承载量以及基于能值分析的可持续发展指数等多项指标的变化趋势，并将2003年的数据进行了国内外对比。针对崇明建设生态岛的目标，分析了崇明岛的优势和不足，为其可持续发展提出了对应的建议和措施。研究表明：虽然良好的生态环境提升了人民的生活质量，但由于缺乏经济和科技竞争力，崇明岛的发展水平处于全国平均水平，与所处的长三角地区整体发展水平相差较大。但岛屿系统现状良好，运行稳定、健康、有活力，可持续性高。未来崇明岛的发展应当合理权衡和协调绎济发展和环境保护的关系，维持系统的可持续性。

Emergy analysis is becoming an effective tool to evaluate regional development and sustainability,as it can weigh both the value of environmental resources and economic activities quantificationally. Chongming Island is the third largest island in China which locates in the estuary of the Yangtze River. Employing the theory and method of emergy,the authors analyzed and evaluated the emergy indices＇ changing trends during 1980-2003, such as emergy self-sufficiency ratio,emergy per capita,emergy density, emergy loading ratio, population carrying capacity, emergy-based sustainability index, etc. Comparison of some important indices of Chongming Island in 2003 with other regions and countries at home and abroad was performed. Aiming at the goal of “ecological island”, the advantages and disadvantages of the island were discussed and some suggestion and countermeasures were put forward in order to maintain the sustainability. The study showed that life quality was high due to good eco-environment in Chongming Island. However, because the developmental ability of economic and the competitive power of science and technology were so low,that its developmental level only ranked at national average. There was a large disparity in general developmental level between Chongming Island and the Yangtze River Delta which it locates in. The status quo of Chongming Island is highly sustainable and the whole system operates stably, healthy and vitally. In the future, its development should balance and harmonize economic development with environmental protection reasonably to enhance sustainability.