长江水质评价和预测模型探讨

ON THE EVALUATION AND FORECAST OF THE YANGTZE RIVER＇S WATER QUALITY

近年来，长江水质的污染程度日趋严重，已引起社会广泛关注。定量地研究长江流域的污染，并对未来污染情况进行预测，对防治长江水质污染具有重要意义。首先通过合理的假设，根据不同的情形分别建立了完全混合式模型、一维多点源稀释自净模型和一维连续点源流入模型。根据1995～2004年水质监测数据，编写MATLAB程序，计算出主要污染物高锰酸盐指数和氨氮的浓度，较好地确定了长江水质主要污染物的分布状况；其次，通过对历史数据的分析，并注意到实际情况的多变性，使用三次指数平滑法，对未来水质污染情况进行预测分析；最后，对模型的结果进行了分析讨论。

In recent years,the polluted degree of water quality in the Yangtze River is becoming more and more serious and has been widespread concerned. To quantitatively study water pollution in the Yangtze River and to predict the future pollution are of great significance in the prevention and treatment of water pollution in the Yangtze River. In this paper, firstly, by reasonable assumptions, the completely mixed model and one-dimensional continuous point source flow model under different circumstances are established. Based on the water quality monitoring data of 1995 to 2004, the authors compile the programs of MATLAB,calculate major pollutant＇s concentrations,and define the distribution of major pollutants in the Yangtze River. Secondly,through the analysis of historical data,and noting variability of the actual situation, using three exponential smoothing, the polluted states of the Yangtze River＇s water quality are analyzed and predicted. Finally,the results of the model are discussed.