用捕获-再捕获方法对中国不同地区监测点疟疾流行现状的评估

Evaluation on current malaria prevalence using capture-recapture method in national sentinel surveillance points malaria

目的探讨捕获-再捕获方法(CRM)在疟疾国家监测点的应用,评估不同地区的监测点疟疾流行现状。方法采用CRM,估计不同地区监测点的疟疾发病率。结果发病率较高地区和发病率不稳定地区、发病率较低地区的估计发病率(/10万)分别为1247.30、171.50和46.10;漏报率分别为65.20%、45.32%和66.67%。结论CRM能较好的反映监测点地区疟疾流行现状。

Objective To explore the feasibility of using the capture-recapture method （CRM） for national malaria sentinel surveillance program and to evaluate the malaria prevalence at those points. Methods By CRM to compare data on malaria cases reported from national sentinel surveillance program and those from the registration of case report system （CRS）. Analysis was made to express the difference regarding the number of cases in order to get the estimates and the incidence rate. Results The incidence in the relative higher epidemic area, unstable epidemic area and relative lower epidemic area were 1247.30/ 100 000,171.50/100 000 and 46.10/100 000, respectively. The rate of miss-reporting malaria cases in these areas were 65.20 %, 45.32% and 66.67% , respectively. Conclusion The situation of the malaria cases in the national sentinel surveillance points could be estimated,using the CRM.