中国焦炭市场消费分析与需求预测

China's Coke Consumption Analysis and Demand Forecast

我国是焦炭生产和消费大国,科学地预测焦炭市场需求对于企业正确决策和完善政府宏观调控具有一定的意义。分别利用行业分析法、弹性系数法及回归分析法对2010、2015、2020年国内焦炭需求量进行预测,鉴于每种方法都各有优缺点以及我国焦炭工业的实际情况,采取中期以行业分析法为主,长期以弹性系数法为主,以回归分析法作为参考,并进行适当调整后,2010、2015、2020年国内焦炭需求量预测结果分别为:23 300万、28 600万、37 300万t。

China is a large country of coke production and consumption. Scientific forecast market demand for coke enterprises correct deeision-making and improving the government＇s macro-control has certain significance. In this paper, using industry analysis, the coefficient of elasticity and regression analysis on the domestic coke 2010, 2015 and 2020 demand forecast, as each method has its own advantages and disadvantages and the actual situation of China＇s coke industry, the mid - to take the main industry analysis, long dominated by elastic coefficient method, regression analysis as a reference, and appropriate adjustment, 2010, 2015 and 2020 domestic coke demand forecast results were： 233 million, 286 million and 373 million t.