摘要
基于48 a来的夏季降雨资料,选用Morlet小波分析方法对嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨序列的多时间尺度进行研究。结果表明：哈尔滨近年来夏季降雨在29-38 a尺度周期变化最明显,模值最大,能量最强;嫩江夏季降雨在19-30 a周期变化较强,能量值较大;2个周期变化都具有随时间推移能量进一步加大的趋势。当前嫩江、哈尔滨夏季降雨均处于枯水大周期内,在未来较长时间里,夏季降雨量将低于多年平均降雨量。
Based on 48 years of summer rainfall data, Morlet wavelet analysis was done of the sequence of summer rainfall in Nenjiang and Harbin, on a multi-time scale. Results show that in recent years, the summer rainfall in Harbin displayed the most apparent cyclical variation on a 29 -38-year scale, the largest modulus, and the strongest energy;and the summer rainfall in Nenjiang did an obvious cyclical variation on a 19 - 30-year scale, and its energy value is quite large. Both the two cyclical variations showed a trend of being stronger in energy with the time. Presently, both the summer rainfalls in Nenjiang and Harbin are in a long cyclical period of low-water. It is predicted that in a relatively long period the summer rainfall will be lower than the average of the past 48 years.
出处
《生态与农村环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第4期29-32,48,共5页
Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment
基金
国家重点基础发展规划项目(2007CB407204)
