薄壁结构失稳屈曲荷载预测的GPM方法研究

Grey Polynomial Method for Grey Prediction and Its Application to Determining Critical Load for Axially-loaded Structures

以工程实际应用为研究背景,注重试验数据变化规律的研究,分析薄壁结构失稳试验曲线的固有特征,提出以曲线的斜率为零确定薄壁结构屈曲荷载的新方法;同时提出了利用灰色多项式拟合曲线割线的斜率建立灰色预测模型的新思路,可解决GM(1,1)模型无法解决的预测值为零或趋于无穷大等禁区内的问题;试验数据分析结果表明,GPM方法是预测这类问题的有效方法之一。

Taking practical application in engineering as research background, the authors have paid much attention to the studies on the change of the laws in the experiment data. After analyzing the inherent characteristics of structural buckling of thin-wall structures, the authors put forward the new method of determining the critical load for thin-wall structures by setting the slope of experiment curve being equal to zero, and the new strategy of constructing grey model by means of fitting the tangent of secants with grey polynomials, which could be used to deal efficiently with such problems beyond the reach of GM（1,1） as their prediction results which are zero or tend to be infinite. The results show that the Grey Polynomial Method is one of the efficient methods of prediction for this kinds of problems.