时间序列模型在井灌水稻区地下水位预测中的应用——以三江平原为例

Application of Time-series Model for Forecasting Groundwater Level in Area of Well Irrigation Paddy——Take Sanjiang Plain as a Case

由于水田面积迅速增加,导致三江平原井灌水稻区地下水位持续下降,吊泵、局部超采现象时有发生。为了解决上述问题,以597农场为例,采用时间序列分析方法建立了597农场地下水埋深动态预测模型,对地下水埋深进行模拟和预测;同时,揭示了该区地下水动态变化规律,为三江平原地下水资源的可持续利用提供了科学依据。

The rapid increase of paddy field acreage has led to continually descending of groundwater level in area of well irrigation paddy in Sanjiang Plain. More and more hanging pump and partial over pumping have been occurring in area of well irrigation paddy. In order to solve above-mentioned problems, this paper took 597 Farm as example, built up the groundwater embedment depth dynamic forecast model of 597 Farm through applying the method of time-series analysis. Through using this model, this paper simulated and forecast groundwater embedment depth, revealed the groundwater dynamic variation regularities of this area. This paper can provide scientific gist for sustainable development of groundwater resource in Saniiang plain.