我国农业家庭经营的波动规律与演变趋势

The fluctuation and Evolution of Agricultural Household Economic

改革开放以来,家庭经营一直受到来自城市化与农业经营环境两个方面因素的外生冲击。按照真实经济周期理论,农户对两种外生冲击预期收益率的变化造成了家庭经营投资费用的波动。首先将改革以来家庭经营波动划分为6个周期,然后运用真实经济周期理论对家庭经营的波动周期、波动幅度与演变趋势进行比较分析。研究结论表明,在新农村建设时期,随着城市化步伐逐步加快,以及政府增加对"三农"的投资、发展现代农业等外生冲击力度加大,传统的小农家庭经营必然向家庭农场制转型。而在家庭经营转型过程中,政府不应干预农户的自主选择,而应通过加大两种冲击的影响力度,引导家庭农场制应运而生。

Since rural reform took place, household is punched by urbanization and agricultural environment. The agricultural environment influences farmer＇s expectation of absolute rate of gainings, and the urbanization influences peasant＇s expectation of relative rate of gainings. In the respective of the real business cycle theory, the change of farmer＇s expectation is the main cause of agricultural wave. At first, this paper divided the period to 6 circles, then, we study the economic cycle, the wavth and evolving trend. At last, we put proposition that while two punch＇ s power is growing, petty peasant economy will involve to family farm, and during this period of involution, the government must lead the production of farm.