BP网络对山东省国内旅游市场的分析预测

Analysis and Forecast of Domestic Tourism Market in Shandong Province by Back-Propagation Model

采用三层结构的反向传播网络(back-propagation network,简称BP网络),对山东省国内游客量建立了网络预测模型.利用实际数据进行模拟,并将模拟结果与采用相同数据源的灰色系统模型、多元回归模型、指数模型的模拟结果进行比较,发现用BP网络模型的模拟结果与实际情况最为逼近.同时,利用该模型对未来几年山东省的国内游客量进行了分析预测,预期到2008年山东省的国内游客量将达到12 577万人次.

Network forecasting model of domestic tourists in Shandong by three-layer Back-propagation network is established. It is found that the simulated result of B-P network model is the most approached practical situation after making comparison with the simulated results of other models such as grey system, multi-regression, exponential regression. And the amount of domestic tourists in Shandong in future is forecasted with this model. The prediction amount will be 125770000 in the year of 2008.