摘要
为了更准确地评估水资源短缺的经济损失,本文利用水资源投入产出宏观经济模型,对水资源的影子价格进行分析计算,在此基础上得到水资源短缺的经济损失及其概率。同时,对包括北京和天津在内的首都经济圈2010规划水平年的水资源短缺经济损失及其概率分布进行了计算。结果表明,在二次水资源供需平衡下,2010年北京市水资源短缺所造成的期望损失值为23.84亿元,天津市为20.07亿元。
In order to assess the economic loss from the shortage risk of water resources, this paper presented a mathematical model of shadow price of water resources, and obtained the economic loss from the shortage risk of water resources and its probability distribution by means of macro-economic model on the input/output of water resources. The model has been used for assessing the economic loss and the probability distribution of the shortage risk of water resources of Capital Economic Zone including Beijing and Tianjin in the programming year of 2010. The findings indicated that, under two-time balance of demands and supplies, the expected economic losses from the shortage of water resources will be RMB 2.384 billion in Beijing and RMB2.007 billion in Tianjin.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第10期1253-1257,共5页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学墓金项目(50239090)
华北水利水电学院青年科研基金项目(HSQJ2006006)
关键词
水资源短缺
经济损失
宏观经济模型
北京
天津
water resources shortage
economic loss
macroeconomic model
Beijing
Tianjin
