新疆耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态分析及其调控途径研究

Study on Xinjiang Cultivated Land-Grain-Population Comprehensive System Dynamic Change and Regulated Method

近年来,新疆耕地面积持续减少,人口不断增长,生态环境问题严重,人地关系矛盾突出,研究新疆的耕地-粮食-人口复合系统的动态变化对西部大开发战略的实施有举足轻重的作用。本文选取新疆耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态变化的总量和均量指标,分析各指标在1996-2005年的变化情况。通过历年总量和均量指标的变化,分析各指标变化产生的原因。并基于历年总量和均量指标的动态变化及其产生的原因,提出新疆耕地-粮食-人口复合系统的调控途径。

Recent years, Xinjiang＇s population is increasing gradually, the problem of ecology and environment is serious, the contradiction of population and land is obvious. It is rather important for implementing Western Development strategy to research Xinjiang＇s Cultivated Land-Grain-Population comprehensive system dynamic change. This paper chooses Xinjiang＇s Cultivated Land-Grain-Population comprehensive dynamic change total quantity index and average quantity index to analyses the index＇s change between 1996 and 2005 years. According to the changes of total quantity indexes and average quantity indexes in every year analyses the every index＇s change brings about problem. The population＇s increasing, cultivated land and degenerate agricultural structured regulation which lead the average quantity index per capital farmland area, per capital grain product and so on to decrease. It bases on the dynamic change in every year＇s total quantity index and average quantity index even the problem that the indexes changes bring about and supplies the regulation and control method of Xinjiang＇s Cultivated Land-Grain-Population comprehensive system.