面向模糊随机需求更新的供应链回购契约响应方法研究

On Response Method for Buyback Contract with Fuzzy Random Demand Updating

针对需求信息更新为模糊随机变量情况,构建了供应链系统在不同决策选择下的获利模型,进一步提出了供应链系统进行决策的乐观主义准则、悲观主义准则和风险中性准则。对于采用回购契约进行协调的供应链,通过分析零售商在不同抉择下的获利情况,提出了修正回购契约参数的可行集构造方法。研究表明,信息更新后,原有的回购契约可能不再适用,需要加以适当修正才能重新实现供应链协调。新的契约在协调供应链同时,能够对需求更新前后,供应链系统的利润变化进行合理分配,体现了“利益分享、风险共担”的供应链管理理念。模拟算例研究阐明了该方法的应用步骤,表明了该方法的有效性。

To the situation that the demand information was updated to a fuzzy random variable, profitability models of supply chain were constructed for different decision options. Pessimistic, optimistic and risk neutral decision criteria were proposed further, for the decision of supply chain. To the supply chain coordinating by buyback contract, formation method of feasible set for buyback contract＇s adjusted parameters was put forward, according to the analysis of profitability of the retailer with different choices. The research shows that, to coordinate the supply chain, buyback contract has to make real time response to in-formation updating. With the adjusted parameters selected from the feasible set, the buyback contract could reasonably distribute the difference of system profit after demand information updating and before,which demonstrated the supply chain management idea of sharing gain and risk simultaneously. Simulated case study illustrates the responding steps in detail and sho,ws the effectiveness of the response method.