AHP决策模型在怒江流域水电能源开发评价中的应用研究

Research of AHP Dynamic Decision Theory on Hydropower Development in Nujiang River Area

本文以AHP决策理论为基础,针对水能资源开发对整个流域生态环境影响较大的特点,建立了一种新的标度矩阵和量化决策模型。该模型基于流域梯级开发环境影响因子的变化特性,提出量化AHP决策模型方法,以怒江流域水电能源开发方案为例,进行评估决策。在充分考虑对整个流域生态环境影响的前提下,对开发方案进行评价与决策,实证研究表明所建立的量化AHP决策模型效果良好。

Based on the theories of multi-objective decision and AHP analyses, this article establishes a new kind of scale matrix and dynamic decision model according to the multi-objective and comprehensive environmental system and the characteristic of the assessment indicator metrics changing with time or temporal period. This model proposes the methods of the dynamic quantification of monitoring indicators and AHP based on the dynamically changing characteristics of influential factors of contributory area scarped exploiting environment, and realizes that dynamic quantification of AHP judgment matrix could satisfy the re- quirement of congruousness to all the temporal points in the whole temporal period. Meanwhile, this article takes hydropower development in in nujiang River Area as an example to assess the decision. The computational result after putting on the environmental influence indicates that the effect of the established dynamic AHP decision model is favorable.