云杉球果锈病流行规律的研究

Study on the epidemic regularity of spruce cone rust

通过定点系统观察，云杉球果锈病病原菌Ｔｈｅｋｏｐｓｏｒａａｒｅｏｌａｔａ（Ｆｒ．）Ｍａｇｎｕｓ．担孢子５月中旬开始飞散，侵入期为５月下旬，病害初期症状出现在６月下旬，锈孢子在７月下旬前后形成，８月中旬锈子器成熟。病情变化与气象有一定相关性，其回归预测模型为Ｙ＝－２４２．６８－５．７３ｘ１－１．０３ｘ２＋４．０２ｘ３－１．９３ｘ４－２．５７ｘ５＋５４２．８４ｘ６＋２６８．６２ｘ７＋０．９２ｘ８复相关系数Ｒ＝０．９９８６＊＊＞Ｐ０．０１＝０．７３４８。病害分布与林木所处位置有关，病情从重至轻的顺序为，南＞北＞东＞西；山脊＞山中＞山脚；海拔高＞海拔低；纯林＞混交林；

Spruce cone rust caused by Thekopsora areolata (Fr.)Magnus is a historical disease.The basidiospores of the fungus begin to spread in mid May and the infection time is the last ten days of May.The initial symptom appears in the last ten days of June.The aecium matures in mid August.The distribution of the disease is related to the location of the forest trees and the condition of the disease is interrelated with the climate.The equation of the differential regression forecast model is as follows;Y=-242.68-5.73x 1-1.03x 2+4.02x 3+1.93x 4-2.57x 5+542.84x 6+268.62x 7+0.92x 8(R=0.9986  >P 0.01 =0.7348).