摘要
文章利用计量经济学方法,对江苏省1985-2005年的GDP及固定资产投资两时间序列数据进行了协整关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)分析以及Granger因果检验。结果表明:江苏省的固定资产投资对经济增长有很大的拉动作用,在短期内固定资产投资增加1个百分点,GDP约增加0.81个百分点,并且二者之间还存在着长期稳定关系和双向的因果关系,在此基础上本文提出一些有针对性的建议。
Econometric methods were applied in this paper to study the time series of GDP and fixed asset investment from the year 1985 to 2005 in Jiangsu province, by testing the Co-integration relations, ECM and Granger Causality. The results concluded that the fixed asset investment had a significant effect in propelling economic growth of Jiangsu. Each percent increasing in fixed asset investment would make GDP increased by 0. 81 percent, and they have a long-term stable relation and bipartite causality. Some corresponding countermeasures would be given based on the analysis above.
出处
《华东经济管理》
2007年第10期8-11,共4页
East China Economic Management
