季节性模型在杨凌示范区气温预报中的应用

The Application of the Seasonal Model to the Air Temperature Forecast in Yangling Demonstration Zone

运用季节性时间序列模型的理论和方法,对杨凌示范区张家岗1935—1945年月平均气温建立季节性模型,并利用所求得的模型对1946年各月平均气温进行预报。结果表明:1946年1月,2月和12月的月平均温度预报值的相对误差较大,同年3月—11月预报值的相对误差较小,其原因之一是中国北方每年1月,2月和12月温度较低,较小的波动就可能使相对误差很大,而3月—11月温度较高,相对误差较小。此外,该模型对步长较短的预测比较准确,误差较小,但对于步长较长的预测,误差较大。因此,该模型适合于短期预报。

Using the theories and methods of seasonal time series model, and the monthly average atmosphere temperature from 1935 to 1945 of Yangling Demonstration Zone Zhangjiagang to build up the seasonal time series model, then make use of the model to carry on the simple forecast to the average air temperature of each month in 1946. The results show： the relatively errors of the monthly average atmosphere temperature＇s prediction is bigger in Jan, Feb and Dec in 1946, and it is smaller from March to Nov in the same year, one of the reason is that annually the temperature of the northern China is lower during Jan, Feb and Dec, and the small fluctuation may cause bigger relatively error, but the temperature is higher from March to Nov, and the relatively error is smaller. Furthermore, the model is more accurate for short forecast, but for longer forecast, the error compares greatly. Therefore, this model is suitable for short forecast.