云南地区M_S≥6地震预报实践中地震非均匀度的应用

Application of the Seismic Inhomogeneous Degree to the Predicting Earthquake of M_S≥6 in Yunnan Province

我们知道,地震活动性主要是研究地震活动在时间、空间和强度等方面的规律。一些学者对地震活动时、空、强方面的统计规律还作了不少研究。本文利用MAPSIS系统工具中GL值计算方法对云南地区(21°N^29°N,97°E^107°E)1972年以来21次MS≥6地震前三年GL值进行时间变化扫描,结果发现该地区MS≥6地震前两年,在震中200 km范围内,3.0级以上地震活动均显示出明显的非均匀状态(GL>1);同时,MS≥6中强震前GL值空间扫描图象显示,GL值的高值区(GL>1)与未来MS≥6地震震中密切相关。因此GL值在云南地区MS≥6地震预报(特别是中期预报)中具有一定的实际意义。

As we know, the seismic activity is mainly described by the charateristics of the earthquake distribution in time, space and intensity. Some scholars have done a lot of research about the seismic activity, for example, Li zhixiong and Gao xu used Poisson＇s equation to set up GL value to describe the inhomogeneous of earthquakes. By use of GL value method in MAPSIS software, the temporal scanning results of GL value for 3 years before 21 earthquakes （Ms≥6） in Yunnan region （21°N-29°N, 97°E -107°E）since 1972 are studied. The results show that there would be remarkable anomalous changes of GL value （ GL 〉 1 ） two years before earthquakes of Ms≥6 in the epicenter with radius of 200 km. It is also found that the high value area（ GL 〉 1 ） seems to be closely related to the strong earthquakes （ Ms≥6）. Therefore the GL value method can play an important role in the earthquake（Ms≥6） prediction, especially in middle-term earthquake prediction in Yun- nan.