近代中国总需求变动的宏观分析

A Macro Analysis on the Moving Trend of Aggregate Demand in Modern China

从19世纪80年代开始,中国开始了经济近代化进程。与传统社会相比较,近代中国是处在一种由封闭经济向开放经济、自然经济向市场经济转变的过渡时期。过渡型经济形态的本质特征决定了近代中国经济发展过程中的总需求发生很大变化,它对近代中国经济增长的贡献力也更加突出。1887年至1936年的49年间,近代中国总需求呈现不断上升的态势,但其上涨并非直线运动,而是呈波动不居的逐步上升趋势。个人消费需求、民间投资需求、政府支出和净出口需求是影响总需求变动的决定性因素。其中,个人消费需求是总需求不断再生的重要推动力量,政府消费支出由于总量甚微,对总需求变化的影响较弱,投资需求对总需求的波动影响明显。中日两国初期经济发展水平相差无几,而总需求的变动趋势及其对经济增长的贡献不尽相同。

Compared with the traditional society, modern China experienced a dual transition from closed economy to open economy, and from natural economy to market economy. This resulted from the great changes of aggregate demand in modern China, which contributed to the economic development very much. From 1887 to 1936, Chinese aggregate demand expanded from 13.91billion to 30.61billion yuan, the growth rate being 1.6% per year. However, the growth of aggregate demand was far from straight upwards. During its fluctuation, we might find the high growth rate of 5.2% per year from 1917 to 1927, while the low rate was -2.5% per year between 1932 and 1934. The aggregate demand consisted of four sections, private consumption, investment, government payment, and net export. The private consumption took up more than 90% of the aggregate demand and dominated its growth trend in modern China. Compared with the simultaneous Japanese modernization, we found that the investment and government payment in modern China was really too small in scale, which apparently restricted the expansion and upgrading of the Chinese industry.