供电企业售电过程中的不确定性分析与预警模型

Models of uncertainty analysis and pre-warning for power supply companies during electricity sales

认为有效协调各类用户的电价可降低供电企业在电力市场中出现的风险。利用敏感性分析方法,构建风险不确定性分析、风险预警数学模型对各类用户的销售电价、用电量进行风险评估,以某电网数据为算例,对模型进行分析,考量对供电企业平均电价的影响程度,认为文内提出的评估方法可以为供电公司有效的规避风险提供一定的参考。

It is considered that effective coordination of prices of various kinds of consumers will reduce risks of power supply companies in the electricity market. The sensitivity analysis method was used to construct the mathematic model for risk evaluation of the electricity price and consumption of various consumers and analyze the impact of the two on the average price of power supply companies.