中国全要素生产率估计:1978-2006年

The Total Factor Productivity of China:1978-2006

Solow残差法在计量全要素生产率时忽略了制度因素,为此本文在构建模型时增加制度虚拟变量。通过用修正后的模型估计中国1978年以采的全要素生产率,本文发现:1978年以来,中国的全要素生产率增长率和技术进步对经济增长的贡献都很显著;但1990年代中后期以来却在低位徘徊。文章认为,应该加强教育投入、切实推动生产要素在国内自由流动以及加快立法,以保证市场经济秩序的公平和公正。

Solow residual looked out the regime factor when estimating total factor productivity, so the paper added a dummy variable to reflect the regime factor. When I used the corrected model to estimate the total factor productivity of China ever since 1978, I found that since then China＇s TFP has increased strikingly, but has been in low level since late 1990s. So I think we should strengthen our education, assure the free flow of factors and establish an equal market economy.