我国未来煤炭供应能力预测研究

Study on forecast of future coal supply capability in China

我国化石能源资源的禀赋特征决定了在未来相当长的一段时间内,煤炭仍将是我国最重要的一次能源,煤炭作为主体能源的地位短期内难以改变。在介绍我国煤炭资源状况、回顾我国"十五"期间煤炭供需形势的基础上,预测2010、2015、2020年全国煤炭需求量分别为27.7、31.1、34.4亿t。从资源开发现状和未来开发潜力等角度分析,满足我国煤炭需求的增量部分将主要由晋陕蒙宁提供,并需要逐步加大新疆等地煤炭资源的开发力度。提出了煤炭开发利用需要解决的问题。

For the native gift feature of fossil energy resources, it is decided that the situation that coal is the most important primary energy will last for a long time in China. Based on the condition of the coal resources and review of the coal supply and demand situation during the 10th Five-Year period, the coal demand will reach 2.77 billion ton （BT） in 2010, 3.11 BT in 2015, 3.44 BT in 2020. From the angles of the current development situation and future development potential, the increment of meeting the coal demand will be supplied from Shanxi, Shan＇xi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. And the development of coal resources in Xinjiang should be enlarged. Finally, the problems about the coal development and utilization were presented.