需求因素对中国经济增长的动态冲击效应研究

The Dynamic Impact of Demand on Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Study

投资、消费和出口等需求因素的变动对中国经济增长具有不同的冲击效应。就投资与消费对经济增长的冲击而言,投资波动显著作用于经济周期波动,而促进消费具有很好的经济增长效应。就经济增长的内外部需求冲击而言,中国的经济冲击主要来自内部需求的影响,但出口冲击对经济增长的效应呈逐年上升趋势。为确保经济又好又快发展,调节投资需求要着眼于引导资源配置,调整经济结构;要采取促进消费的各种措施,形成消费驱动型的经济增长模式;要适度调整外贸政策,转变对外贸易发展方式,发挥出口作为经济平稳增长"调节器"的功能。

Changes in demand factors, like investment, consumption and export, have differefit effects on economic growth in China. As for the effect of investment and consumption, investment fluctuations have a significant impact on business cycle, and stimulating consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. As for the effect of internal and external demand, China has been mainly affected by internal demand shocks, but there is an increase in the effect of export shocks on economic growth over the years. To ensure sound and rapid economic growth, we should readjust investment demand by guiding resource allocation and restructuring the economy ; we should take measures to stimulate consumption and form a consumption-driven mode of economic growth ; we should moderately readjust foreign trade policy and transform the development mode of foreign trade, and give full play to the role of export as ＂stabilizer＂ of economic growth.