基于ANP的装备型号研制项目风险评价

Project Risk Evaluation of Model Development Based on ANP

以装备型号研制过程中的某系统的方案选择为例,构建ANP模型,对如何应用ANP进行型号研制项目的风险评价及决策进行分析。步骤包括:根据决策方案与评价标准间的相互关系,建立风险评价的网络模型;以进度风险为例,对不同方案产生的进度风险构造比较矩阵;假设决策标准和决策方案的偏好权重均为最简单的情况,对超矩阵进行加权,得到加权超矩阵,对其进行计算,最后构造极限超矩阵。

Take the scheme selection of a system, which is during the equipment model development, as an example, construct the ANP model and make risk assessment and decision of the model development project. The process includes： establishing the ANP model based on the relation between decision scheme and evaluation criterion; constructing the comparative matrix of the progress risk of different scheme; supposing the partial weight of both decision-making standard and decision-making scheme are the simplest, weighting the super matrix to get the weighting super matrix, and at last building the limit super matrix through computation.