城市远景交通量推算的一种变参数非线性模型

A Nonlinear Time-Varying Model for Urban Traffic Volume Forecasting

本文以城市的整体发展为背景考察城市远景交通发生量的演化规律,提出了一种预测交通量变化趋势的变参数非线性模型,分析了该模型的原理、性质及模型参数的辨识方法。并给出了本模型对一些城市实际交通量的拟合和预测结果。

Based on the general pattern of urban development, a nonlinear model with time-varying parameters to forecast urban long-range traffic volume is put forward. The mechanism of the model is discussed, and an algorithm of estimating the time-varying parameters is developed. Some results are given to show the application of the model to the actual data of two cities.