河北省唐海县农民收入的灰色关联分析与增长途径建议

The Grey Correlative Analysis and Suggestions on Growth Path of Per Capita Net Income of Tanghai County Rural Households in Hebei Province

分析了唐海县10a来农村劳动力变化和20a来农民收入状况,计算了农民收入与其影响因素、构成因子的灰色关联度。结果表明:唐海县农村劳动力呈逐年增长态势;从事第三产业的人员逐年增长,从事农业的人员逐年减少;农民收入逐年增长,近年来增幅不大;在选取的影响唐海县农民收入的5个因素中,第一产业增加值影响最大,而后依次是工资性收入、耕地面积、农村劳动力数量和粮食产量;在农民收入的5个构成因子中,家庭经营收入贡献最大,而后依次是工资性收入、种植业收入、财产性收入和转移性收入。在此基础上,提出了发展现代农业、提高农业综合生产能力以及加快非农产业发展、加快农村劳动力转移等促进农民增收的途径。

The number of rural labor of Tanghai County from 1995 to 2005 and its per capita annual net income from 1985 to 2005 was analyzed.The grey degrees of correlative between the per capita net income of rural households and its influence factors and ingredients were calculated.The result indicated that the number of rural labor of Tanghai County from 1995 to 2005 was increased year by year.The number of rural labor engaged in the service trade was increased but the number in agriculture was decreased.The per capita annual net income was increased with few increment last year.Among the 5 influence factors to the per capita net income of rural households,added value of agriculture is the first.The rest orders were the wage,the arable areas,the number of the rural labor and the grain output.Among the 5 ingredients of the income of the household,the income from household operation is the biggest.The rest orders were wages,income from plantation,income from property,and transferring income.It was also put forward that at the same time of developing modern agriculture and promoting agricultural comprehensive productive capacity,the work to quicken the development of industry and service trade,improve rural labors to find effective work in other fields,and the income of the rural households should be conducted.