中国大陆近期地震活动性与中长期地震概率预测

RECENT SEISMICITY AND MIDDLE-AND LONGTERM PROBABILITY PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE IN THE CONTINENT OF CHINA

通过地震震级概率预测方法得到的中国大陆各地震带1990～2005年地震危险性预测结果与近几年实际地震活动情况的对比研究，对这一方法及其实际预测效果有了更深入的理解。在此基础上，对中国大陆各地震带1996年7月至2005年发生不同震级的地展概率进行了预测。结果表明，未来中国大陆继续处于自1988年底以来的新一轮地震活跃阶段，中国东部5缓地震发生概率继续增加，华北地块的北部边缘地震带和右江地震带有可能发生6级地震；7级地震的危险性主要集中在山西地震带及长江中下游一南黄海地震带。中国大陆西部各地震带仍普遍具有发生6级地震的可能性；发生7级地震的可能性在青藏高原中部及其东部边缘地震带、西昆仑地震带和南天山地震带较高。

A research is made to compare the estimations of earthquake risk from 199O to 2OO5,which were obtained by the method of probability prediction of earthquake magnitude,with the real seismicity in the continent of China. It results in a deep understanding to theestimation method. Based on this method, we give a continuing probability prediction ofearthquake occurrence within the time interval from July 1996 to December 2005 in theChina's continent. The update estimations depict that the seismicity in the China's contin-ent remains in the new active stage that began at the end of 1988. The risk of earthquakeswith magnitude 5 in the eastern China's continent is increasing. Meanwhile, there is a pos-sibility for earthquake occurrence both in the northern edge seismic zone of North Chinaand Youjiang seismic zone. Risks of earthquakes with magnitude 7 are mainly concen-trated in South Yellow Sea seismic zone and Shanxi zone. The possibility of earthquakeswith magnitude 7 could be exPected to occur in seismic zones among the central part andnorthern edge of Qinghai-Tibet plateau, western Kunlun seismic zone and southernTianshan seismic zone. We should pay more attention to the continuing occurrence ofgreat earthquakes in the rest seismic zones.