江西电网电力弹性系数分析

Analysis on electric elasticity coefficient of Jiangxi power grid

为了准确预测电网电量水平,需要采用电力弹性系数等多种预测方法。电力弹性系数是反映电力消费增长速度与国民经济增长速度之间比例关系的一种指标,在对江西电网历史弹性系数研究分析的基础上,采用线性回归法,预测江西电网"十一五"弹性系数平均值为0.74,采用电力弹性系数法,预测2010年江西电网需电量为613亿千瓦时。

The forecast methods,such as electricity elasticity coefficient,are essential to forecast the load level. The electricity elasticity coefficient could reflect the relationship between the growth rate of electric power consumption and the national economy growth rate. Based on the analysis the historical electricity elasticity coefficient, this paper forecasts that the average value of the elasticity coefficient of Jiangxi power grid in the period of the eleventh five-year is about 0.74 with the method of linear regression algorithm ,and the demanded electricity is 613 hundred million kWh.