时间序列预测模型的建模方法与应用

Modeling Method and Application of Time Series Prediction Model

介绍时间序列分析的基本理论及其预测建模的方法;采用参数识别方法,结合某大型建筑发生沉降的动态数据,建立该建筑物变形的时序预测模型,对建筑变形进行了监测和预报。实际工程应用表明,该模型能准确监测和预报建筑的变形,具有很强的实际应用价值。

The basic theory of the time series analysis and the modeling method of time series prechction are presented. Adopting the parameter identification method and combined with the dynamic data of sedimentation of a certain huge building, the time series prediction model of deformation of this building has been established to monitor and forecast the deformation. The examples of application has shown that this model can monitor and forecast the deformation with accuracy, providing important practical application value.