宏观调控下的未观测信贷与投资过热

Non-Observable Loan and Fixed Investment Under the Macro-regulation Policy

民间金融、地下金融活动形成的未观测信贷是正规金融体系以外的金融资源,对经济与货币运行有一定的影响。本文通过计量经济模型测算了未观测信贷资金规模及其对固定资产投资中自筹投资的支持作用。由于未观测信贷资金主要流向了自筹投资集中的房地产、能源等热门行业,抵消了宏观调控中货币政策的实际效果。

Non-observable loan formed by informal financial activities is the financial resource out of the formal financial system, which impacts the economic and monetary movements. In this paper, the scale of non-observed loan and its function to self-financing investment have been measured through economic models. Non-observed loan flows into real estate, energy industries and other hot investing fields, and this weakens monetary policy regulation effects.