中国商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金之模拟分析

A Simulation Study on the Entrance of Chinese Commercial Banks into the Property Insurance and Fund Industries

通过使用模拟合并的方法分析中国商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金的潜在风险和收益,研究结果表明商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金能增加银行的收益,并提高单位风险的报酬,同时能显著降低商业银行的破产概率;研究结果同时显示,合适的财险和基金业务资产比重对于达到最佳的跨业兼营效果是必不可少的。此外,对比研究发现商业银行同时跨业兼营财险和基金比商业银行单一跨业兼营财险或者基金能获得更大的风险分散收益,因此支持银行同时跨业兼营财险和基金。

This paper uses hypothetical mergers to analyze the potential risks and returns for banks in diversifying into property insurance and fund industries. The research indicates that the entrance of commercial banks into the property insurance and fund industries can increase their revenue and return per unit of risk, and significantly reduce their probability of bankruptcy. The results also indicate that appropriate proportion of nonbanking assets is indispensable for achieving the optimal effect of diversification. In addition, a comparative study shows that the simultaneous diversification into the property insurance and fund industries generates higher diversification benefit than the unitary entrance into the property insurance or fund industry. Therefore, it is advisable for banks to diversify, into property insurance and fund industries simultaneously.