洞庭湖上监测断面的水质综合评价和趋势分析

Comprehensive assessment and tendency analysis for water quality of monitoring sections on the Dongting lake

为对洞庭湖水质进行区域评价并分析其发展趋势，以洞庭湖水环境质量为目标层、各个监测断面为准则层、各污染指标为子准则层，建立了洞庭湖各断面水质综合评价的层次结构模型，并依据层次分析法分析的结果建立了预测各断面水质的发展趋势的拟合线性多项式。综合评价的层次分析法结果表示：2002—2004年，樟树港、南嘴断面与其它断面相比水质状况较差，坡头断面的水质较好。水质发展趋势线性多项式的拟合结果表明：樟树港、目平湖、鹿角和东洞庭湖断面的水质变差趋势较其它断面显著。

In order to assess regional water quality of the Dongting lake and analyze water variation tendency,the analytic hierarchy model for various sections on the Dongting lake is set up by taking water environment quality of the Dongting lake as objective layer,monitoring section as criterion layer,pollution indexes as sub-criterion layer and fitting polynomial expression is set up according to analysis result of the analytic hierarchy model to predict water quality development tendency of the sections.The comprehensive assessment results demonstrate that compared with other sections,the water quality at sections of Zhishugang and Nanzui is poorer and the water quality at Potou section is better.The fitting result by polynomial expression for water quality development tendency shows the worsening tendency of water quality at Zhangshugang,Mupinghu,Lujiao and east dongting lake is more obvious than other sections.