飓风的启示:渤海湾西岸现状与趋势分析

Enlightenments of the Hurricanes: Analysis for the Current Status and a Possible Trend on the West Coast of Bohai Bay

墨西哥湾飓风促使本文作者再次反思渤海湾西岸的现状:海岸线由曲折转为平直的、以侵蚀为主的自然进程,人为活动为主因造成的潮间带变宽变缓的、以淤积为主的干扰进程,以及二者之间的交互作用。提出在海面上升、地面下沉伴随下,在淤积进程达到其顶点后、重归以侵蚀为主的自然进程的可能前景,届时的“沼泽化”威胁,将加剧目前以“封闭治理”理念为主导的防洪措施对环境的不良影响。

The Hurricanes, recently occurred in the Gulf of Mexico, spurred the writers to re-consider the current status of the Bohai Bay- naturally erosive process that changes zigzag to linear shoreline, interference accumulation proce- dure that widens and smoothes the intertidal zone, as being induced mainly by human activities, and interaction be- tween the two factors. Being corresponded by sea level rise and ground subsidence, coastal process will return to e- rosion after the culmination of muddy accumulation. On other hand, both rising sea and subsiding ground them- selves may trigger off a trend of paludification on the coastal lowland. This would exacerbate impact given by the current flood-control policy, being based on a “closed management” conception.