中国经济结构的演化及其增长效益的测度分析

China's Economy Structure Change and its Growth Effects

改革开放以来,中国在经济总量和人均收入持续提高的同时,经济结构也发生了巨大的变化。经济结构的变化不仅是经济发展的一部分,而且也是经济持续增长的一个重要动力和源泉。本文通过对Feder非均衡经济增长模型的拓展,建立了一个可同时测度经济结构变化的增长效益和投资数量及其效率的增长效益的非均衡计量经济模型。模型的分析表明,工业化和城市化的交互作用所导致的经济结构变动对中国近三十年来的经济增长具有巨大的推动作用,是推动中国经济持续高速增长的一个主要动力。模型的分析也表明,投资建设中的浪费和资本使用效率的低下,是目前中国经济发展过程中亟待解决的主要问题。经济发展不仅需要关注GDP的增长,更应该关注社会财富的增长和积累。

Since the reform and opening up, total economic output and income per capital of China have got rapid growth, and economic structure also has got great change. In this paper, we build a disequilibrium model which can be used analyzing growth effects of economy structure change and investment return by extending Feder＇ s disequilibrium economic growth model. The results shows that economy structure change caused by mutual push force of industrialization and urbanization is a main motive power of rapid economic growth in China, and lower efficiency in investment is a serious problem in economic development in China, which must be settled fast. As we pay attention to the growth of GDP, we should focus on the growth and accumulation of wealth.