摘要
从出口退税与贸易顺差的因果关系检验出发,我们可以得出出口退税可能引发非贸易资金流入的结论。从统计方法、转口贸易等角度并结合中美两国的数据进行检验,我们可以看到,中国贸易顺差确实存在虚高成分。中国贸易顺差的虚高将催生经济局部甚至全面过热,增加人民币升值压力,加剧境内金融市场流动性过剩,导致贸易争端升级。对此,应当引起我们的重视。
Cause-effect test of tax reimbursement for export and trade surplus shows that tax reimbursement for export will result in non-trade capital inflow. Considering statistical methods, transit trade, and economic data of China and America gives the outcome that Chinese trade surplus is indeed illusively high. The illusively high of Chinese trade surplus will lead to partial or even general economic fever, press RMB to appreciate, aggravate the liquidity surplus in domestic capital market, and induce trade dispute. Therefore, we must pay great attention.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第10期11-16,共6页
Economic Theory and Business Management
关键词
贸易顺差虚高
出口退税
非贸易资金
贸易争端
illusively high of trade surplus
tax reimbursement for export
non-trade capital
trade dispute
