摘要
采用灰色系统理论中的GM（1，1）模型，选取2001～2005年我国客运运量数据，分别建立了铁路、公路和民航客运周转量的预测模型，经检验，模型精度等级较高。应用所建模型进行了2006～2010年客运周转量预测，并对照2006年实际运量数据，证明预测结果精度较高。最后讨论了GM（1，1）预测模型在运量预测实际应用中的指标选取、模型检验和应用范围。
To forecast the passenger transport industry, forecast models of passenger turnover quantity of railway, highway and civil aviation in China are established respectively based on GM（1,1） forecast model according to the data from 2001～2005. And of these models is confirmed with great precision. Then, passenger turnover quantity in 2006～2010 is calculated based on these models. Also, the forecast result is convincing comparing with the actual data of 2006. Finally, variable selecting, model verifying and application of these models are studied.
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2007年第6期106-107,共2页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
关键词
客运周转量
GM(1
1)模型
检验
预测
passenger turnover quantity
model GM （1, 1）
verify
forecast
