相似穿孔线虫在中国的适生区预测

Potential Geographic Distribution of Radopholus similis in China

【目的】相似穿孔线虫(Radopholus similis)是中国一类检疫对象,随着国际贸易日益加剧,该线虫传入中国的风险也日益加大,急需对其适生性进行分析。【方法】利用已广泛用于物种潜在分布预测的GARP与MAXENT两种生态位模型预测相似穿孔线虫在中国的适生区,并对预测结果进行了阈值依赖和非阈值依赖比较。【结果】两个模型均能较好地预测相似穿孔线虫的潜在地理分布;预测在中国适生区主要分布在南方各省,包括海南、广东、福建、云南、台湾等省区;经检验MAXENT预测结果较GARP好。【结论】相似穿孔线虫可随花卉苗木的国际运输传入中国,并可在中国南方沿海地区及花卉进出口大省云南省等地区发生;上述地区的进出口口岸应加强对相似穿孔线虫的检疫工作。

[Objective] The burrowing nematode （Radopholus similis） is one of the main quarantine pests in China and the risk of invasion posed by this nematode is becoming more and more serious with regard to the international trade being intensified day by day. It is urgent to analyze the potential geography distribution of R. simils in China. [ Method] GARP and MAXENT, the two niche models that have widely been used to predict the potential geographic distribution of alien species, were employed to predict the distribution of R. similis in China and we also presented a model comparison of the results by both of threshold-dependent and threshold-independent evaluations. [Result] It has shown that the two niche models could be used to predict the potential distribution of R. similis reliably. The potential distribution of R. similis should be constricted within south China, such as Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, Yunnan and Taiwan provinces. The MAXENT gives a better prediction than that of GARP. [Conclusion] R. similis can be introduced to China by the flower and nursery stock＇s international shipping. The predicted results indicate that R. similis can occur in south coast areas of China and Yunnan province, the main flower and nursery stock＇s import-export areas in China. Consequently strong quarantine program is needed at the ports of these areas to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.