有限记忆与盈余数据的异常分布

The Study of the Unusual Pattern of Limited Memory and Earning Data

通过对1996至2005年十年间中国上市公司的净利润的实证分析,我们发现当净利润为正时,盈余数据的左起第二位为0的概率比正常情况的概率显著的大,为9的概率比正常情况的概率显著的小;而当净利润为负时,情况正好相反,盈余数据的左起第二位为0的概率比正常情况的概率显著的小,为9的概率比正常情况的概率显著的大。这种盈余数据的异常分布现象,和国际上对于其他国家的研究一致,说明"有限记忆"的行为特征,对管理者造成影响,成为我国上市公司盈余管理的一个动机。

Using data of listed firms during 1996 to 2005 in China, the paper finds unusual patterns in the second digit of reported earnings. Specifically, when the reported earnings are positive, there are more ＂0＂ than expected and less ＂9＂ than expected in the second digit. When the reported earnings are negative, the result is on the completely contrary. This result is consistent with the study of the ＂limited memory＂ behavior of investors in other countries, and it is believed that the ＂limited memory＂ is an incentive of earnings management for the listed firms in China.