旅行效用概率模型与旅游业滞区发展策略研究

Research on the probabilistic travel utility model and the strategy of developing tourism in stagnation area

旅游流的空间分配是旅游研究的重点.从效用的角度研究旅游流的空间分配具有一定的合理性.从众多的预期目的地中,旅游者最终选择的是在一定经济和时间花费约束下可感受效用值最大的目的地.然而Rugg的旅行效用模型存在以下几点不足:(1)未列明具体的消费技术矩阵,对具体变量与效用的关系未作明确阐述.(2)该模型没能反映出多产品组合间的竞争关系和权衡取舍关系.所以Rugg的旅行效用模型缺乏可操作性.借鉴并修正Rugg的旅行效用模型,对旅行效用变量进行界定和识别,建立旅行效用概率模型,用于分析旅游流的空间分配,并据此提出王瑛、王铮界定的"旅游业滞区"发展策略.最后以福建为例,结合线性规划技术和Lancaster效用理论说明旅行效用概率模型在实践中的应用.基于旅行效用概率模型,还可以简便地绘制在不同时间和预算约束下各目的地所对应的客源地的旅游域,对其目标市场进行界定.

The distribution of tourist flow is the heated topic in tourism research. Utility theory has many advantages and reasonabilities in explaining tourist decision and destination choice. However, Rugg＇s travel utility model doesn＇t offer the consumption technology constraint and its factors, which loses its practical value. What＇s more, Rugg＇s travel utility model can＇t demonstrate the contest of multi-destination. Beginning with identifying travel utili- ty and its relationship, this paper modifies Rugg＇s travel utility model and develop the probabilistic travel utility model. According to this model, some suggestions for tourism stagnation area defined by Wangying and Wangzheng are put forward. In the end, its practical value by combining with linear planning technology and Lancaster utility theory in Fujian＇s case is presented and the condusion is made that the probabilistic travel utility model has great practical value which can map out its generating tourism area and position its target market on constraint of different disposable time and budget.