基于洪水资源化的水库汛限水位调整及其风险管理

Limited Water Level Adjustment and Risk Management of Reservoirs Based on Flood Resource Utilization

在论述“洪水资源化”概念和调整水库汛限水位所涉及的影响因素的基础上,构建了汛限水位调整后的风险和效益评价指标体系及其估算方法,以及论述了水库汛限水位调整的风险管理对策。以五强溪大型水库为例,综合评价了在不同汛限水位方案下所带来的风险及效益,并引入优选模糊理论方法来合理调整汛限水位。通过综合分析认为,五强溪水库在主汛期将汛限水位从现行的98.00m提高到100.00m的方案是可行的,它在防洪风险增加不多的情况下,可将有可能被排泄的1.85×108m3洪水转化为有效利用的水资源,显然,将大型水库提高汛限水位超蓄洪水是实现洪水资源化的重要手段,但必须是在加强水库实时调度风险管理的提前下实施。

Based on the concept of ＂flood resource utilization＂ and influencing factors of adjusting the limited level of reservoirs during the flood season ,an indices-evaluating system and estimating method about risk and performance related to the adjustment of limited level was set up, and the risk management countermeasure of the water level adjustment was discussed.Taking Wuqiangxi reservoir as an example ,this study comprehensively evaluated the risk and performance brought by adjusting the limited level and the application the fuzzy-optimum-seeking method to adjust the limited level.According to the comprehensive analysis,it is feasible to raise the current limited level of 98.00m to 100.00m in the flood season.Under the condition of the low flood control risk,some 1.85 ×10^8m^3 of flood probably excreted can be utilized efficiently,but this project must be carried out only at strengthening the risk management of real-time dispatching. Obviously,it is important to heighten the limited level and reserve more flood to realize the flood resource utilization.