基于GM(1,1)的芜湖市人均农用地生态足迹变化研究

Research about Per Capita Farmland Ecological Footprint Change of Wuhu City Based on Grey Theory

应用Wackernagel等提出的生态足迹方法,对芜湖市1996—2005年的人均农用地生态足迹、人均农用地生态承载力和生态赤字进行了计算;利用灰色系统预测模型建立了芜湖市人均生态足迹、生态承载力预测模型GM(1,1),经求解、检验、预测,可得到今后数年该市人均农用地生态足迹、生态承载力数据,并对灰色系统模型应用于生态足迹的预测作了可行性分析。结果显示,未来5年该区域的人均农用地生态足迹呈逐渐增大、人均农用地生态承载力呈逐渐下降的趋势,人均生态赤字也逐渐增大。

With the theory of ecological footprint put forward by Wackemagel,etc,this paper calculated Wuhu＇s per capita farmland ecological footprint, per capita ecological capacity farmland bearing and per capita ecological deficit from 1996 to 2005. Apply the grey prediction theory, constructed model GM（1,1） of the these of Wuhu City, and set up the time line using 1996 - 2005, and then computed it, checked it out, forecasted the future, at last we could gain per capita farmland ecological footprint, per capita ecological capacity farmland bearing and per capita ecological deficit in the future in Wuhu City. Lastly the calculation result proved that this method was feasible and effective. The result showed： In the following five years, Wuhu＇s per capita farmland ecological footprint increased tardily and fluctuated, per capita ecological capacity farmland bearing decreased slowly, while per capita ecological deficit augmented step by step.