影响红沿河核电厂区热带气旋特征及最大强度估算

Characteristics and the Maximum Intensity Estimate of Tropical Cyclones Impacting on Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Plant Area

红沿河核电厂区位于我国北方海域的辽东湾东海岸,经常受到北上热带气旋的侵袭和影响。观测和统计表明,在辽宁登陆的热带气旋,强度能够达到台风,不容忽略。影响红沿河的热带气旋基本出现在7、8月份,以进入渤海后向西北移动和穿越山东半岛向北在辽东半岛登陆的两类热带气旋对红沿河区域影响最大,建国56年来最强的热带气旋在红沿河附近区域造成的最大风速达到25～33m/s,极大风速达40m/s以上。使用概率论方法和梯度风公式估算红沿河核电厂区可能最大热带气旋的强度参数,得到:百年一遇的可能最低气压估值为961 hPa,最大风速为35.4m/s,极大风速为46.0m/s;千年一遇的可能最低气压估值为939 hPa,最大风速为42.2m/s,极大风速为54.9m/s。

The Hongyanhe nuclear power plant is located in Liaodong Bay,northern China, which is often invaded and impacted by tropical cyclones.Observations and statistics show that the tropical cyclones landing in Liaoning can＇t be ignored because their strength can reach to ty phoon level.The tropical cyclones impacting on Hongyanhe mostly occur in July and August. The tropical cyclone which has a route like moving to north-west after entering the Bohai Sea or north across the Shandong Peninsula landing in the Liaodong Peninsula has the strongest impact on Hongyanhe area.The maximum wind speed of tropical cyclone impacting Hongyanhe achieves 25-33m/s and the extreme velocity reaches above 40m/s in the past 56 years since 1949.Using theory of probability and gradient wind formula to design Hongyanhe nuclear power plant area,the possibly maximum intensity parameters of tropical cyclone are： the minimum pressure at 961 hPa and the maximum wind speed at 35.4m/s happening once in a century,the lowest possible pressure at 939hPa, the maximum wind speed at 42.2m/s and the extreme wind speed at 54.9m/s happening once in a millennium.