反倾销的跨国实证分析——基于宏观经济因素对反倾销立案影响的理解

The Transnational Evidence of Antidumping——based on the apprehension of the impact of macroeconomic factors on antidumping cases

基于15个国家1995-2004年反倾销的统计数据，通过模型分析以及实证研究，表明宏观经济因素对反倾销立案存在显著影响。依据GDP增长率、失业率、汇率及经常项目差额等相关数据，指出这些变量与反倾销立案数量显著相关，强调失业率的影响比GDP增长率更加显著。在发展中国家中，汇率对反倾销立案数量影响的显著性较低，而经常项目差额对反倾销立案数量影响的显著性较高。文章的分析在一定程度上给政府制定反倾销政策提供了相关参考价值。

Based on the statistical data of antidumping of 15 nations among 1995 -2004, this article holds that it is affected prominently by maeroeeonomie factors for antidumping eases. According to relevant data of grov,＇th rate of GDP, unemployment rate, exchange rate, balance of current account and the volumes of antidumping eases, it is deduced that these variables are relevant prominently, especially that the impact of unemployment rate on antidumping is greater than the growth of GDP on it. The current account balance has high significantly impact on antidumping eases in developing countries rather than that of exchange rate. To some extent, the analysis of this article provide some reference for the government to regulate antidumping policies.