中国外资需求的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Foreign Capital Demand of China

改革开放以来,我国利用外资的数额一直保持在世界的前列,尤其是最近10年来,随着中国市场经济体系的逐步成熟和经济全球化步伐的加快,我国利用外资的规模进一步增大,外资对我国经济也发挥出了越来越重要的推动作用。但是,随着我国利用外资的大幅增长,其负面效应也在不断加大,了解我国利用外资情况,对我国外资需求进行深入的研究,建立合理的外资需求模型,对我国引进外资的规模进行计划决策,充分发挥外资的正面效应是非常重要的。本文利用协整与误差校正模型对外资需求进行研究,得出我国外资需求的长期及短期模型.研究结果表明,我国外资需求与国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额和汇率等影响因素之间存在协整关系。

Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China has been at the forefoont in the amount of foreign capital utilization of the world , especially in the past 10 years. With the gradual maturity and accelerating pace of economic globalization in Chinese market economic system, the scale of foreign capital utilization further increases and the foreign capital plays an increasingly important role in the development of China＇s economy. However, some negative effects resulted from inappropriate foreign capital utilization have broadened. In-depth study on foreign capital demand and the establishment of reasonable models are very important in making decisions on the scale of introducing foreign capital and making full use the positive effects of foreign capitals. This paper analyzes the foreign capital demand by using co-integration and error-correction model, which can establish long -term and short -term model for foreign capital demand. The results showed that there existed a co-integration between GDP, export volume, import volume and exchange rate.