指数衰减模型的进入、临时关闭与退出策略

Entry,Temporary Suspension and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty

研究了当某项目具有指数衰减随机死亡时间,其产品价格服从几何布朗运动及投资具有部分可逆性时,公司对该项目的投资的实物期权,即在产品价格达到某一阈值时公司进行该项目,而当产品价格下降到某一阈值时,公司可以临时关闭该项目或退出该项目,而进入、临时关闭及退出策略作为管理柔性具有相应的实物期权价值。特别当项目残值较少时,临时关闭策略的价格阈值大于退出时的价格阈值,因此,在临时关闭时,公司具有2种不同的实物期权,等待价格上升后再生产的等待期权及价格可能下降后的放弃该项目得残值的放弃期权。

When the output price follows a geometric Brownian motion and the investment has a partly reversibility and the lifetime of the project is random with a form of depreciation , the firm has the real options to the investment project. Once on the output price reaches some trigger price, the firm invests the project, after entry, if the output price falls to another trigger price, the firm may temporarily suspend or abandon the project. The entry, temporary suspension and exit decisions as managerial flexibility have the values of real option. In particular when the project salvage isn＇t large enough, the trigger price for temporary suspension is larger than the trigger price for exit, so, in the period of temporary suspension, the firm has two different real options： the waiting-option for reproducing and the option to abandon the project for obtaining the salvage.