房地产价格与宏观经济基本面研究的新视角被引量：20

A New Perspective of Study on Real Estate Price and Macroeconomics Fundamentals

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摘要从房地产市场羊群行为的角度探讨房地产价格与宏观经济基本面的关系,并用上海房地产市场数据进行实证。结果表明,羊群行为存在时,宏观经济基本面与房地产价格的关系发生扭曲,同时,房地产价格弹性(分别关于城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入以及人口增长)大于羊群行为不存在时的情形。 Herd behaviors in the real estate market have very great influence on efficiency and stability of the market. The paper provides the method of verification based on CSAD in the real estate market,carries on the real example with the data of Shanghai in the end and verifies macroeconomics fundamentals＇ influence on real estate price when herd behaviors exiting. The result shows that the relationship between the macroeconomics fundamentals and housing prices has been distorted, and price elasticity of real estate （on disposable income per capita and the change rate of total population） is bigger because of herd behaviors existing.

作者位志宇杨忠直王爱民

机构地区上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

出处《系统管理学报》北大核心 2007年第5期572-575,共4页 Journal of Systems & Management

关键词羊群行为横截面绝对偏离度房地产 herd behavior CSAD real estate

分类号 F293.35 [经济管理—国民经济]

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