门槛效应、资本账户开放与经济增长

Threshold Effects,Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth

一国的初始经济条件对资本账户开放的收益具有重要的影响。采取"门槛回归"的方法对初始经济条件对资本账户自由化收益的影响进行的实证分析表明,在资本账户自由化的过程中,初始的国民收入水平、贸易开放度和金融发展水平间都存在着"门槛效应"。这些"门槛"前后,资本账户自由化对经济增长的影响呈现出较大不同。分析当前中国资本账户自由化的条件,可以发现:在我国区域经济发展存在较大差异,跨境资本流动性加大,法律和制度建设水平薄弱,国内的金融自由化改革尚未充分展开的情况下,对资本账户的全面开放应当审慎进行。

The initial economic condition affects varying extents the effects of capital account liberalization on economic growth. Using the method of ＂Threshold Regression＂, this paper makes empirical test to the effects of prerequisites on the benefits from capital account liberalization. The results show that the ＂threshold effects＂ exist in the initial national income, trade openness and financial development in the process of capital account liberalization. Around these thresholds, the impacts of capital account liberalization on economic growth vary greatly. Based on the observation, we conclude that China should be very cautious to open its capital account in the situation of the huge imbalance between regional economic development, poor legal system, less developed institutional infrastructure as well as the non-fully-launched domestic financial liberalization.