甘肃胡麻产量对气候变化的区域响应

Regional Response of Normalized Flax Output Index to Climate Change in Gansu Province

利用1981-2000年甘肃省胡麻的统计产量和同期4-10月的气温资料,研究胡麻产量的时空特征和影响因素,结果表明:胡麻产量演变中呈现出区域一致、随时间明显上升的特点;20世纪90年代胡麻产量具有2～4a的变化周期。用奇异值分解方法检测出温度和产量的年际变化中存在密切的大尺度空间相关特征,整体上胡麻产量对温度响应敏感,对温度响应的最敏感区主要集中在河西西部。

Based on the data of flax yields and air temperature during the period 1981 -2000 for the growth seasons （from April to September） in Gansu Province, the spatiotemporal distribution of flax yield and climate variations on the interannual time scale were analyzed by wavelet analy- sis. The results showed that the variation change period of flax yield was identified to be 2 -4 years in 1990g. The Singular Value Decomposition analysis （SVD） was applied to examine the large scale spatial correlative characteristics between the oil crop yield and surface air temperature. The first paired-modes explain 79.95% of the squared covariance between the oil crop yield and temperature. As a whole, the flax yield was sensitive to the changes of temperature. The most sensitive region was the west of Hexi Corridor.