黑龙江省水稻气象灾害损失评估

An Assessment of Rice Loss Caused by Meteorological Disasters in Heilongjiang Province

以黑龙江省基本无气象灾害年水稻的产量为基本序列,利用拉格朗日插值法得到历年水稻的期望产量,将气象灾害损失量从产量中分离,从而实现对黑龙江省1949-2004年水稻气象灾害损失量的评估。结果显示:黑龙江省气象灾害1984年以前对水稻危害较大,巨灾、大灾年份比例占48.6%,平均灾损率达到29%,水稻产量年际波动大;1984年之后,水稻抗灾能力增强,全省基本无巨灾和大灾发生,平均灾损率9%。通过进一步对水稻灾害损失量与水稻各种灾害受灾、成灾和绝收面积统计结果进行分析发现,低温冷害是危害黑龙江省水稻发展的主要气象灾害。

Taking rice yields in non-meteorological disaster year in Heilongjiang Province as the fundamental sequence, calculated the expected yield of all previous years by using the method of Lagrange Interpolation, the yield loss caused by meteorological disasters was extracted from the total yields. Thereby, the yield loss of rice caused by meteorological disasters was assessed for 1949 -2004. The results showed that the impact of meteorological disasters was relatively larger than that before 1984. The serious disaster year （yield loss rate t〉 30% ） accounted for 48.6% , the average yield loss rate was 29% , and the yield fluctuation of each year was larger. The disaster resistant ability of rice had been enhanced, and there were no serious disasters since 1984. The average yield loss rate was lowered to 9%. A further analysis between yield losses due to meteorological disaster and disaster area of different meteorological disasters indicated that the cool summer damage was the major meteorological disaster for rice production in Heilongjiang Province.