中国税收收入的季度模型分析：1985—2006年

Quarterly Model Analysis of China's Tax Revenue in 1985—2006

本文对1985年以来的税收季度收入资料,运用时间序列软件模块,建立了自回归求积移动模型、乘积型季度模型,以及季节解构后的调整序列回归模型及模型比较。讨论了这期间税收季度收入特点等,为税收分析和宏观管理提供更具时效性的决策参考。

This paper apphes series model,on the basis of quarterly national tax revenue data since 1985,establishes au- toregressive integrated moving average model ARIMA(1,1,1),muhiplicative model ARIMA(2,1,1 )*(0,1, 0),and seasonal decomposition model,then discusses and compares model characteristics,tries to provide more effective reference model for scientific management and macro-decision of revenue.