人民币升值、出口退税下调与我国地区出口增长——基于大国经济的视角

Appreciation of RMB,Decline of Export Duty Rebate Rate and the Regional Export Growth:A View from a Large Country

本文通过理论模型证实了汇率和出口退税政策对出口总量有影响,且运用中国的数据实证检验发现了汇率和出口退税对出口的影响具有地区差异。平抑贸易顺差应该根据地区特点制定差异化的政策:东部地区可以实施出口退税率进一步下调或者取消出口退税政策,一方面减少顺差,另一方面促进产业结构升级;中西部地区出口本身受人民币升值影响较大,为保护当地产业发展,不宜再采取下调和取消出口退税政策。

This paper using theoretical models proves that policies of exchange rate and export duty rebate rate affected the total amount of export significantly.We also found the consistence of the theoretical model and the empirical study of China's evidence.Considering the disparity of regions,different policies to different regions should be taken to decrease surplus of international trade.Decreasing the export duty rebate rate could be taken into practice in eastern regions.It could help to decrease surplus of international trade.On the other hand,it helped to improve the industrial structure.Decreasing the export duty rebate rate will do harm to economy of mid and western regions,so it should not be taken.